El Super Niño 2026/2027

In the Pacific region, there is a recurring weather and climate cycle known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific. As a result, Southeast Asia receives abundant rainfall and warm ocean waters, while cold, nutrient-rich waters off the Pacific coasts of Central and South America support thriving fisheries and create generally dry conditions. This is what a typical year looks like.

During El Niño years, these trade winds weaken significantly or may even stop altogether. The Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru becomes much warmer than usual. Southeast Asia often experiences droughts and storms, while Peru can be hit by torrential rainfall and severe coastal flooding.

El Niño events have occurred throughout the entire period of modern weather records, typically separated by several years.

Interestingly, the oldest known indicator of El Niño was neither a satellite nor a weather station, but a shell. The sacred Mullu shell (Spondylus) reaches the Peruvian coast through warm ocean currents flowing from the north. For thousands of years, its appearance was regarded as a warning sign of changing weather patterns, heavy rainfall, and crop failures. The phenomenon only acquired the name “El Niño” after the Spanish conquest of Peru. Referring to the Christ Child, the term reflects the country’s colonial legacy of Spanish language and Christian religion. Archaeological discoveries, including recently uncovered Spondylus fragments at Kuélap, serve as a reminder that knowledge of El Niño is far older than the name by which it is known today.

What makes 2026/27 different is that El Niño is unfolding in a world already shaped by human-driven climate change. The interaction of a naturally occurring climate cycle with a warmer atmosphere increases uncertainty and makes outcomes harder to anticipate. Today, the world may be facing an exceptionally powerful event. NOAA sees a greater than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño during the second half of 2026. Some forecasts even suggest a record-breaking event that could surpass the devastating 1877/78 El Niño, which contributed to famines that claimed millions of lives.

One important point is often overlooked: a Super El Niño rarely affects the coffee world evenly. While some producing regions may experience severe drought, others could receive additional rainfall or remain comparatively stable. The impacts often vary not only between countries, but even between neighboring coffee-growing regions. This asymmetric and highly unpredictable nature is what makes El Niño such a challenge for producers, exporters, and markets.

The market is already beginning to price in these risks. This can be seen in the C price. Despite Brazil heading toward a record crop in 2026, coffee prices have not collapsed. On the contrary, prices have remained elevated and at times moved even higher. Market participants are evaluating not only current supply, but also the risks facing future harvests and global supply chains.

The effects are already becoming visible. In Panama, El Niño-related drought conditions are contributing to lower water levels in the Panama Canal. As a result, canal authorities have reduced the number of daily ship transits. Less transit capacity means longer waiting times, higher freight costs, and additional pressure on global supply chains, including coffee.

At the same time, weather extremes threaten major coffee-producing regions. While parts of Central America and Southeast Asia often face drought conditions during El Niño years, other regions may receive unusually heavy rainfall. In Brazil, excessive rain during harvesting, drying, and processing can be particularly problematic. Even in years of high production, quality can suffer significantly.

Higher coffee prices do not automatically translate into higher farmer incomes. Producers affected by drought, flooding, or quality losses may simply have less coffee to sell. In such cases, rising prices can offset only part of the lost production. For many smallholders, adaptation remains difficult, as investments in irrigation, water storage, and other resilience measures require capital that is often unavailable.

It is also important to remember that this event has only just begun. El Niño events typically exert their strongest influence during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Many of the most significant impacts on rainfall patterns, logistics, harvests, and commodity markets may therefore still lie ahead.

For the coffee industry, this is a reminder that climate risk is no longer a future concern. It is already influencing prices, availability, transportation routes, and coffee quality today.

The good news: we are prepared. Our coffees remain available, and we continue to strengthen our supply chains to ensure resilience in the face of growing climatic challenges.